Straight Talk

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April 30, 2009
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An Overdose of Investment Advice

Whew! By the time you receive this, I will have just finished my MC duties at two back-to-back investment conferences. First came the Atlanta Investment Conference, where a host of newsletter editors, market analysts, and other wizards told us what they expected the market to do over the coming months.

Best line of the conference was someone who quoted Barack Obama as saying, "If I weren't President, I'd be buying stocks now." And followed it by saying, "Heck, if he weren't President, I'd be buying stocks, too."

Before I could compile a list for you of their best recommendations, I had to hop on a plane and fly to Bermuda (yes, sometimes it's tough duty), where I was the MC for the Total Wealth Symposium sponsored by the Sovereign Society.

The focus there was on international diversification, rather than stock picks in the U.S. There was an overwhelming consensus on the part of the speakers that the tsunami of new spending coming out of Washington is going to do terrible things to the U.S. dollar.

It's going to take me several more days to sift through all of the ideas I heard and come up with a coherent summary for you. But that will be high on my list of priorities when I return home.

So for this week, no specific investment suggestions for you. Instead, I want to repeat some of the best financial advice that's ever appeared in this column.

Dennis Gartman's Rules of Investing

One of the smartest market commentators in the business is Dennis Gartman. I've had the pleasure of hearing him at several investment conferences and have even had the privilege of introducing him once or twice.

He makes more sense — and more "cents," too — than the vast majority of analysts and advisers. Over the years, he's developed a series of rules of trading that he's happy to share with us. As he says, ignore them at your peril. Here they are:

  1. Never, Ever, Under Any Circumstances, Add To A Losing Position. Not ever. Adding to a losing position is trading's equivalent of driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it.

  2. This Is Not A Business Of Buying Low And Selling High. It's a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.

  3. "Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You Or I Can Remain Solvent" is a brilliant statement from good friend Gary Shilling. Illogic often reigns and markets are inefficient — despite what the academics try to tell us.

  4. Sell That Which Shows The Greatest Weakness; Buy That Which Shows The Greatest Strength. Metaphorically speaking, when bearish throw rocks into the weakest paper sack, for it will break the most easily. In bull markets, ride the strongest winds.

  5. Think Like A Fundamentalist, Trade Like A Technician. It is imperative that we understand the fundamentals driving a trade, and that we understand the market's technicals as well. If the chart is not bullish, why buy?

  6. Understanding Psychology Is Usually More Important Than Understanding Economics. Simply put, "When they are cryin', you should be buyin'. And when they are yellin', you should be sellin'."

  7. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent And Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections. Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are. Accept it and move on.

  8. Be Patient With Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient With Losing Trades. Remember, it is quite possible to make large sums of money if we are only "right" 30% of the time, as long as our losses are small and our profits are large.

  9. The Hard Trade Is The Right Trade. If it is easy to sell, don't. And if it is easy to buy, don't. Do the trade that is hard to do and that the crowd finds objectionable.

  10. Do More Of That Which Is Working And Less Of That Which Is Not. This works in life as well as in trading. Do the things that have been proven of merit. Add to winning trades, cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a "secret" to trading (and to life), this is it.

  11. There Is Never Just One Cockroach. Bad news about a stock is usually followed by more bad news. This continues until such a time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.

  12. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken. But very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and still prosper.

Thanks, Dennis. Every business day of the week, Dennis arises in the small hours of the morning and writes The Gartman Letter, a market commentary that many consider the best in the business. To learn more about it, check it out at www.thegartmanletter.com.

Chip Shots

* Punished for telling the truth. I feel sorry for Carrie Prejean, the Miss California representative in the Miss USA Pageant. At the beginning of the contest, this lovely lady was favored by many to win. But then one of the judges asked her about same-sex marriages. She replied, graciously I thought, that she had been raised to believe marriage should be between a man and a woman, but that she wouldn't judge someone who felt otherwise. That was all it took for the homosexual lobby to go after her scalp. So what if a majority of Americans agree with her? There went her chances of winning.

* Bigger bills get spent slower. Here's an interesting study from researchers at the University of Maryland. It seems that the larger the dollar bill we carry, the slower we are to spend it. Most people are unlikely to break a $20 bill to buy a pack of gum; but if they have 20 $1 bills, they won't hesitate to make the purchase. If all you have on you is a $100 bill, you won't spend it unless it's important. But break that into a bunch of $5s and $10s, and your impulse buying goes way up.

* All the gold in Fort Knox isn't enough. Stewart Dougherty, author of Theft of a Nation, comments that "The United States of America, or more precisely, the American people, are said to own 261 million ounces of gold, supposedly stored in the same Fort Knox vault that Goldfinger found so appealing. At $1,000 per ounce, the people's gold has a value of $261 billion. TARP I alone has cost 270% of the entire value of that singular, tangible American asset. The total $13 trillion bailout cost thus far is 4,980% of the value of America's gold."

* Seventy-four years ago this month, Congress approved legislation creating the Works Progress Administration. The program created 8.5 million jobs for the unemployed in public works projects. Americans quickly coined the name "We Piddle Around" for the WPA, because so many of the make-work jobs consisted of standing around leaning on shovels. What do you think the chances are that this time will be any different?

This Week in History

On April 25, 1945, 45 countries convened in San Francisco for the founding conference of the United Nations. The general secretary of the meeting was none other than the notorious Soviet espionage agent, Alger Hiss. He had been picked personally for the post by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and promptly approved by FDR's buddy, "Uncle Joe" Stalin.

Hiss was not the only American involved in the formation of the United Nations who was later revealed to be a Communist. In fact, of the 18 Americans cited by the State Department in 1950 as "the important men who shaped the UN," all but one were later identified as Communists. The lone exception was former Secretary of State Dean Acheson, who may not have been red, but was certainly a very pink Establishment insider.

With such a record, it is no surprise that the UN's "Universal Declaration of Rights" makes absolutely no mention of the source of our rights being a Creator — or anything else but government — and further says that all rights and freedoms "shall be subject only to such limitations as are determined by law."

No wonder that the UN's idea of "world peace" has always and everywhere been the same as "world socialism." Or why so many responsible Americans insist that the U.S. should get out of the UN — and vice versa.

Until next time, keep some powder dry.

Chip Wood

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Straight Talk is a weekly commentary written by Chip Wood.  For many years Chip was the host of an award-winning radio talk show in Atlanta, Georgia.  He is the founder of Soundview Publications and serves as an MC at several investment conferences.  His weekly rants and raves are free for the asking at www.straighttalkletter.com.

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